Peace and War Report (Week of July 13th)

Armenia: At a Crossroads, Tension from regional wars

The situation in the Middle East is generally tense as the Arab nations have not been able to export oil since February 28th. Qatar has declared a force majeure on its LNG due to explosions among their refineries. Saudi Arabian facilities and pipelines have also been struck. American bases as far away as Jordan have been hit with missiles. Israel’s “Iron Dome” is no longer functioning very effectively as it has depleted its interceptor missile stocks.

This also includes the Near East region (Southwest Asia) between Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Turkiye. Currently Armenia is led by a Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan who in the opinion of many is more interested in joining the European Union than in observing longtime alliances formed between Armenia, Iran, and Russia. Wars instigated by Azerbaijan against the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenian island state have resulted in cuts in trade ties between the two states. Turkiye’s open-favoritism towards Azerbaijan does not help with regard to resolving hostilities that trace back to the Armenian Genocide of 1915 in which up to 1.5 million Armenians suffered persecution and murder.

Recovering from the trade impasse is crucial for Armenia to survive as a nation beyond the 21st century. According to experts, one vision for Armenia is to continue to capitulate to the demands of the West. It would allow for a private consortium to pay for the development of the Zangezur Corridor (renamed Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity in 2025) in exchange for 49-year lease by the U.S. government, and 99-year lease by the consortium. On paper it appears to offer gains for the region, especially the long sought after connection between Turkiye, Azerbaijan, and the Caspian Sea connection to Central Asia. However there are many concerns that the Armenian citizens should be allowed to resolve.

At Syriana Analysis with host Dr. Kevork Almassian, Dr. Arthur Kachikyan (May 19, 2026) mentions that Armenia’s President can strike for a better deal. In comparison with BRICS deals with China, there are no known instances where China requires such long-term lease-to-own agreements. (Generally such risks are assumed as a last resort, such as under default, such as happened with developments in Sri Lanka.) There are general balance of security concerns; Russia has offered security for the Corridor for reasons that are obvious; it has long viewed Armenia as an essential trade partner to the Persian Gulf via Iran. However obviously the EU and the United States, mired as they are in a proxy war against Russia, face a long-term war of attrition. They are clearly eager about new geopolitical advantages of having an EU partner at the doorstep of Russia where NATO can build bases.

Alternative news commentators are providing platforms for discussion about the public debate that needs to be allowed within Armenia, rather than the blind march towards accession that Prime Minister Pashinyan clearly is taking the country. Russia is already warning that Armenia cannot simultaneously become a member of the EU while remaining a long-time member of the Eurasian Economic Union, with its members including Central Asian nations as well as Russia. Russia has stated that Armenia must pass a referendum prioritizing its economic goals; does it want to remain in the Russia orbit with its advantages of deeply discounted gas, security via the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and beneficial trade connections?

However with regard to the recent Artsakh war, some commentators are stating that by all appearances, Pashinyan baited Russia during the Azerbaijan offensives in 2020 and in 2023 in Nagorno-Karabakh. Under the CSTO, Russia has a significant military base in north Armenia, as well as contributing peace-keeping forces alongside the fighting Armenian soldiers (viewed as rebels by Azerbaijan) based in Nagorno-Karabakh. However prior to the war, Pashinyan had already forced top-ranked experienced Armenian generals to resign, replacing them with less qualified military personnel. Throughout the war, fighting forces from Armenia were held back from being dispatched with speed and from fighting with determination. This left Nagorno-Karabakh largely fighting for its sovereignty without Yerevan. Eventually the Russians and the rebels were outnumbered by Azerbaijani fighting forces.

The complexity of the polygonal relationship between Armenia-Russia-Azerbaijan-Turkiye is made even more complex by the fact that Russia and Azerbaijan presidents Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev are traditional family friends through his father, Heydar Aliyev. The Aliyevs are long-time ruling oligarchs who have controlled the country for decades, first as bosses under the Soviet Union, then as a modern khaganate with an ambition to ultimately enjoin with Turkiye, which also does not rule out re-establishing a West Asian empire. From the aspect of gas and oil wealth, Azerbaijan-Turkiye have already established several significant railway and oil transportation lines that deliberately bypass Armenia via routes through Georgia to its north. Spurs from the lines even connect to a Russian port along the Black Sea. Meanwhile after 2020, Armenia detached itself from the rail transportation spur.

Armenia could have strengthened its position within the CSTO and garner more aid from Russia, but it has purposely edged toward the European Union with its long-time fantasy to join the European Union. Recently the Prime Minister was proud to host the European Council Summit (May 4th-5th, 2026) in Yerevan, Armenia. However, as with the case with Turkiye and Georgia, any hoped for rapid accession into the European Union with its marketing and cultural exchange advantages is usually delayed via complex benchmarks and standards built into CEPA (Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement) to be reviewed and adhered to. Generally EU posturing also includes supporting the EU-NATO proxy war against Russia.

It must be noted that shortly after the Summit and with the publicized meeting between Ukrainian President Zelensky and Prime Minister Pashinyan, Russian state foreign minister Sergey Lavrov issued sharp words: “We will not finance your anti-Russia movements,” he growled, alluding to Armenia becoming an EU conduit for Russian trade goods, while the EU continues Russia sanctions and maintains hostile armies in the Ukraine. President Putin also warned that a referendum would be required. Essentially while Russia provides global security and trades goods, she expects Armenia to respect Russian trademarks and patents.

Armenians and the public must ask whether the rapprochement will be truly bilateral? Observers note that the EU has established strong ties with Turkiye, and judging from the high profile meetings between EU President Ursula von der Leyen and President Aliyev in Baku, there is fervent interest in establishing economic links to Azerbaijan. In any potential war with Azerbaijan-Turkiye, the national sovereignty of Armenia will be overlooked. In any conflict, they are even likely to stand-down. Whereas with Russia there is at least a historical access to Russian military, economic, and cultural resources and exchanges, along with the carry-over links into Iran, provided that Armenia faithfully stands by Russia against Ukraine.

Can there be a “transition period” whereby Armenia does not have to make such a choice in referendum between EU vs Russia? Former Ambassador Dziunik Aghajanian brings up the difficulty of the zero-sum nature of this kind of argument, and why must Armenia must be subject to this kind of choice-making when, clearly, due to its geo-economic and geographic advantages, Azerbaijan can play all sides? Russia is even willing to sponsor Azerbaijan membership in BRICS, while the West is vigorously courting access to Azerbaijan’s ports, rail, oil, and trade networks.

Must Armenia become just another small nation cannibalized by the neoliberal globalist markets? Will it become a military jetty with smart sustainable cities used as a cover for IDF dens and spy operations? Are they expected to become a NATO launching pad for bases to carry out ongoing assaults against Iran or future missile attacks against Russia?

If Armenia is overtaken by NATO, the encirclement of Russia from the West and Southwest Asia will be complete. The Deep State is counting on using China-developed OBOR against itself via future incursions from Central Asia into China. The World Bank has a habit of restructuring local economies in ways that heavily disfavor small national businesses forcing them to adapt to globalized venues. These transnational global corporations tend to rob the economic vibrancy of public markets and bazaars, even while AI is paring down white-collar workforces. Meanwhile, the EU primacy as directed by the United States, as seen in international news, is to enact self-sacrificial trade sanctions and energy rationing in favor of prioritizing a new war-time economy. For instance, The Gateway Pundit recently reports that in “Germany: 65,000 Small Retail Stores Disappear and Over 340,000 Industrial Jobs Lost Since 2019 as Deindustrialization Policies Hit Europe’s Powerhouse.” The article attributes this to major industries moving to China, but also to new higher priced and less reliable energy sources, as well as attending ripple effects from industry closures, and general loss of cultural hegemony from international retailers.

At Armenian News Network, former Ambassador Dziunik Aghajanian (July 3, 2026) recently argues that however challenging it may be, it is essential that Armenia vigorously picks up on the current debates on membership in the EU vs Russia alliance. Also there is the debate on changing the Armenian Constitution to allow surrender of island territories such as Artsakh, and even taking forms of these debates to the United Nations. Armenian sovereignty is at stake if it is forced to become polarized between pro-Russia versus pro-West. Dr. Kevork Almassian, and Groong host Asbed Bedrossian, point out how there are few real benefits offered by the EU for Armenia surrendering their economic partnerships with Russia. There is not even a long-term offer to join the European Union, nor any prospect of joining NATO, both of which should receive debate inside the Armenian Parliament. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Pashinyan is heavily favored by European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, and French President Emmanuel Macron, as the incumbant in upcoming elections.

In previous discussions and from resources online, it is noted that 51-year old Nikol Pashinyan himself is somewhat a cypher. He mysteriously arose from the ranks of a small Armenian newspaper as a controversial journalist. His training as a journalist was complemented by activism, for which he served a year-and-a-half jail sentence. He then became the leader of first the Way Out Alliance, then the Armenian National Congress. Since then his Civil Contract party maintains an oddly significant majority in the Parliament. Diaspora public intellectuals speculate that he is basically a George Soros color revolution cut-out, since he did come to power under the “2018 Armenia Revolution” protests, marches, and demonstrations. In fact, their main ideology leans pro-Western, pro-EU integration, pro-Turkiye and pro-Azerbaijan. During 2026, Pashinyan’s re-election campaign included a “Real Armenia” slogan and he handed out lapel pins showing Armenia without Artsakh.

Turkish editor Murat Yetkin reports (“Armenia: Pashinyan chose Peace with Turkiye and Azerbaijan—and Won”) that in Pashinyan’s victory speech he stated:

“The people of Armenia voted for peace, regional prosperity, and regional cooperation…I hope this choice will be welcomed positively in Turkiye and Azerbaijan.” — from Armenia President Pashinyan victory speech, June 7, 2026

The general perspective is that Armenians do not want to fight to the death for any Greater Armenia, which is actually good when compared to the everlasting bloody death struggles that Israel engages in. Pashinyan’s Civil Contract Party recognizes that this is a “frozen conflict” and is willing to surrender Artsakh and four border villages to Azerbaijan. He has approved the Zangezur Transportation Corridor (TRIPP) despite the limited profit from the lease. He wants to reduce Russian and Iranian influence in the region; and to pacify Turkiye, he has even removed the silhouette of Mount Ararat (traditionally belonging to Old Armenia) from official documents. His constituents view him as trying to build bridges, at least internationally, by way of the olive branch.

However the general consensus among outspoken diaspora Armenians is that if Armenia is to remain a sovereignty it must be able to choose from all sides, act independently and eclectically as strong-man state Azerbaijan. It should not be manipulated by offers which are political entrapments and it should expose the existing neoliberalists favoring a pro-Pashinyan color revolution that penalizes traditional Armenian culture and values. The Duran has also exposed the extent to which Pashinyan persecutes the opposition parties, church leaders, and even Artsakh refugees, including keeping them in jail on pretexts, and creating a monopoly out of the one-channel state TV network. Dr. Almassian claims that just for exposing these matters, he has been blocked from accessing the X-social media accounts of Armenian parliamentary representatives.

Armenia’s descent into a one-man rule, Pashinyan ruling with an iron-fist (the President office is mostly symbolic), does not bode well for Armenia’s future; and Russia Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov has issued somber warnings over the illegality of the recent Armenian elections due to various election inconsistencies (starting with jailing opposition election candidates) and miscounts. All of this places second-tier nations, whether it is the Gulf nations or the Near East or Central Asia, at risk of becoming overtaken by the sophisticated strategic economic, social, and military schemes of Western nations versus the strongmen of Russia (oligarchs). These operations, such as in Iran or Lebanon or Syria, may trigger staged unrest or supplanting of the leadership of the targeted nation. As has been seen with nearby Iran, it even involves open assassination of key religious and political leadership.

The Armenian diaspora (which are multiple times the population within Armenia), the Palestinian diaspora, and the Lebanese diaspora are all encouraged to not sit idly by the wayside but to instead form support networks that foster recognition of ongoing or past genocides according to authentic criteria. Both ANN and Syriana Analysis bring out the heavy irony that Prime Minister Netanyahu recently came out in public support of recognition for the Armenian Genocide of 1915. On the one hand, it would seem to be a great benefit, as Groong‘s Hovik Manucharyan mentions, because this would motivate the United States to also finally formally recognize the Armenian Genocide as well. However, on the other hand, as Ambassador Dziunik Aghajanian believes, it may be a ploy to weaponize such recognition in order to shame Turkiye into US-Israeli support for war plans against Iran.

Independent analysts and activists have long pointed out, whether as guests interviewed at Al Jazeera News or elsewhere, that Israel’s plans for a Zionist apartheid state include taking over the Armenian Quarter of Old Jerusalem. Armenian squatters are engaged in a daily battle with Israeli police who harass them in order to chase them out of the abandoned Quarter. The Armenian squatters who guard the area on rotation, including with guard-dogs, argue that they are all that prevents the Quarter from being destroyed for redevelopment. In fact, there are similar takeovers long underway in the Christian Quarter and in the Islamic Quarter, since ultimately all of the al-Aqsa Mosque is slated to become the Third Temple.

However, as repeatedly documented by independent news sources, the measures undertaken in the Islamic Quarter of the Old City are much more harsh. It includes arrest of young children, arbitrary firing upon visitors to al-Aqsa mosque, and detainment for long periods before military court trial of business owners or home owners. Detainment in Israeli prisons invariably includes all manners of abuse. Palestinian Christians are encouraged to serve as controlled opposition, a “model minority” standing against the human rights of persecuted Palestinians, blind to the abuse of the Palestinian Muslims.

Unfortunately there are daily news of atrocities ongoing and continuing day-after-day in spite of a ceasefire; the Peace Board, headed by President Trump, now intends to push all the Gazans down into a southeast portion of Rafah city in Gaza Strip, where they will be living in “concentration camps within the greater concentration camp” in order to facilitate the much anticipated “redevelopment of Gaza for a New Golden Age.” Images have been published of a new state-of-the-art smart city, including port-refinery-transit hub-hotel-resorts, in place of the ruins of Gaza city. Picture a wealthy UAE Persian Gulf region transplanted to the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea.

But since the Western Zionist global security architecture ravages the local native populations because they are all “children of Amalek,” one cannot forget the threats, deeds, and plans of the Epstein class, addicted as they are to mass murder and psychopathy. And this is the deadly spiritual danger that Armenia, as the oldest continuing Christian nation on Earth, faces from the West. Tours of Armenia heavily advertise the beauty of its many old stone Armenian Orthodox Churches strewn throughout its mountains and villages, complete with iconic Khachkars. In Artsakh, Azerbaijanis have destroyed many heritage relics. One can imagine how real estate magnates lust for transforming many old churches into luxury housing.

The Prime Minister, who has already essentially won the election for a third term, has built his own political fortress, including control of the media, political apparatus, and parliament, while leveraging it against opponents. Opponents are routinely jailed for indefinite periods for supporting Old Armenia style of governance, emphasizing community and religion and established ways of doing business. Loyalists to Pashinyan are awarded, while opposing diaspora are turned around at the airport and told to return home. Groong has also brought up a new controversial bill to create a smartphone registry whereby everyone’s IMEI numbers will be recorded by the government and managed by private corporations.

This kind of Big Brother campaign to foster fear via surveillance only ultimately reduces democracy further to the kinds of European Union and United Kingdom authoritarianism that exists today, where people are jailed for remarks made online such as via social media. It reduces to invisibility the real struggle for liberation of the people in genuine revolutions. Western media has not reported how Pashinyan even supports the imprisonment of rebel leaders from Artsakh in Azerbaijani jails for fear that they can unseat him politically.

Thus, it remains to be seen what the “friendly autocrat” Prime Minister Pashinyan will enact next in the cause of building new crossroads to peace and prosperity and cooperation throughout the region, whether balancing the north-south Russia-Iran axis trade and security corridor, or east-west NATO-Azerbaijani Black Sea to Caspian Sea corridor.

Screenshot of oil and gas pipelines (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan) and railway projects extending from Azerbaijan to Turkiye from The Duran podcast dated October 6, 2020. Article by C. Kroll, AGN Editor